In this episode of Don’t Shoot the Messenger, Unless It Makes You Feel Better to Do So…
Even though many people didn't think the red wave would happen, the media and keyboard warriors kept telling us it would. They also told us it was happening as the election results were being tallied.
One day after the midterm elections, we find ourselves in the uncertain position of not knowing what will happen to the balance of power in Congress. The so-called "red wave" didn't materialize.
Except it didn’t. Why not? That’s a yuuge — and necessary — question.
As political pundits started making their own excuses on Tuesday night, others presented their own analyses of the failed red wave. The real reasons why the supposedly great wave didn't materialize were revealed by the various factors that were predicted by some and ridiculed by others.
1. With limited exceptions, 90 percent of election outcomes are baked in before the first vote is cast.
Some believe that every election begins with a blank slate. However, it's not always the case. Usually, the races start at around 45 to 47. The candidates' starting points are based on various factors, such as their positions on issues and how they perform in front of their supporters. More importantly, the number of people who show up and vote also affects the outcome.
2. Election turnout.
Even though pre-election polls and surveys are often covered in ad nauseam, they are irrelevant. The only thing that matters is the ballots that are sent out. As has been shown time and again, complacency can set in and cause fewer people to vote. This is why it's important to remember that the only thing that matters is the ballots that are sent out. The failure of the so-called red wave to materialize did not help the Republican Party.
3. Donald Trump.
To deny that Donald Trump's presence had a bigger impact on the results of the midterm elections is to deny reality. The exact impact of Trump on the results began to be debated on Tuesday night, and it continued to rage on Wednesday. As I mentioned earlier, many Republican voters are beginning to believe that it's time to move past his baggage and start moving on from him.
People often ask me what baggage I carry. The latest example is Trump's ill-advised attempt at mocking Ron Desantis during a rally in Ohio on Saturday night. He mocked the candidate who won by over 20 points on Tuesday, and he gave an acceptance speech that was regarded as one of the most stirring speeches I've ever seen in politics.
The self-proclaimed head of the Republican Party, Donald Trump, is known to mock and ridicule the popular governor of America just three days before the election. Who does this? Trump.
In a previous piece, I argued that several Trump-backed candidates would likely lose their elections even though they won their primaries. On the other hand, those who were not supported by the president would have a better chance of winning. Some of the prominent Trump-endorsed candidates who won included Ted Budd in North Carolina, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Eric Schmitt in Missouri, and Katie Britt in Alabama.
In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, a Democrat, defeated Mehmet Oz, a Trump-backed candidate. In other races, such as the governor's race in Arizona, Kari Lake, who was backed by the Trump campaign, was in a statistical tie with Katie Hobbs, a Democrat. In Georgia, the race between Raphael Warnock, an incumbent Democrat, and Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed candidate, remained too close to call. A Wednesday midday update gave Walker the edge, forcing a run-off.
More than 20 of the Trump-backed candidates who were running for office lost their elections. In some races, the margin of victory for the candidates who were supported by the president was too small to call.
The preceding is a summary of an article that originally appeared on REDSATE.
