President Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs, set to begin on 5 April 2025, have triggered immediate economic turbulence and warnings of prolonged global instability. Here’s a breakdown of the situation and potential timeline for the fallout:
### Immediate Economic Impact
– following the announcement, with Asian indexes (Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng) dropping 2–4% and U.S. futures sinking nearly 5% overnight.
– —especially small U.S. firms—are bracing for higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and potential layoffs.
### Escalation Risks
– are already brewing:
– pledged “resolute countermeasures” against its 34% tariffs, risking a tit-for-tat spiral.
– The is finalizing countermeasures to Trump’s 20% tariffs, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calling the move a “major blow to the world economy”.
– and labeled the tariffs “regrettable” and vowed to protect their economies.
– If retaliation accelerates, could worsen, prolonging economic strain.
### Factors Influencing Duration of Pain
1. : Trump stated tariffs could be lifted if trading partners lower their barriers to U.S. exports. However, trust in negotiations is low, with China dismissing the tariffs as “unilateral bullying”.
2. : The tariffs are tied to Trump’s “America First” agenda. If maintained, they could last through his potential term. A future administration might reverse them, but that could take years.
3. : Companies may relocate production or absorb costs over time, but this process could take based on past trade wars.
### Long-Term Outlook
– have intensified, with leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni fearing a “weakened West” and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro predicting a “big mistake” for the U.S. economy.
– (e.g., Myanmar, Vietnam, Zambia facing 45–46% tariffs) could face lasting damage to export-driven industries.
In short, the “pain” will likely escalate in the (6–12 months) as retaliatory tariffs take hold. A protracted trade war could extend economic disruption into the , depending on political shifts and diplomatic breakthroughs. For American consumers and businesses, higher prices and market volatility are the new normal—at least until Washington or its partners back down.
