This year’s Thanksgiving grocery basket carries an odd mix of good news and bad news for hardworking families. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey found the classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 will average about $55.18, down roughly 5 percent from last year — the third straight year of modest relief after the record highs of 2022.
Don’t let one comforting headline lull you into complacency. Bankrate’s own analysis shows that 78 percent of common holiday staples have risen since September 2024, meaning that while the turkey line item fell, many other essentials are squeezing household budgets. Senior Bankrate analyst Mark Hamrick has been clear: tariffs and policy uncertainty can turn small price bumps into painful hits for average Americans.
Others tracking the supply chain sound the alarm about upside risks that could spoil this apparent win. Researchers and regional outlets point to rising feed costs, disruptions from avian flu, and tariffs on imported inputs as drivers that could push wholesale turkey prices higher this season, with some analyses showing a meaningful jump in spot prices compared with last year. Families should not assume this year’s relief is guaranteed.
Even national banks offer mixed signals, so Americans should plan for both possibilities. A Wells Fargo analysis cited by major outlets finds shoppers may see a 2 to 3 percent dip in the cost of a typical Thanksgiving haul, but that doesn’t erase the fact that overall grocery inflation remains stubborn and uneven across regions and items. That unevenness is the problem politicians in Washington refuse to fix.
Here’s the bottom line conservatives should be shouting from the rooftops: Washington policy choices matter. Tariffs that act like regressive taxes on American households, combined with economic uncertainty from reckless spending and meddling in the markets, raise input costs for farmers and force retailers to pass those costs onto consumers — exactly the opposite of helping families keep more of what they earn.
Farm groups aren’t asking for handouts, they’re asking for sensible policy and relief where it helps: stability for producers and common-sense trade that doesn’t punish American shoppers at the register. The Farm Bureau has urged Congress to address the challenges facing farmers so families can count on affordable food, not political theater. Washington needs to stop experimenting with our grocery bills and start supporting the men and women who put food on American tables.
If you run a household, do what generations of Americans have done: shop smart, watch for local deals, and don’t let ruling-class rhetoric distract you from basic stewardship of your family budget. And if you care about a future where Thanksgiving is reliably affordable, demand leaders who will cut pointless tariffs, secure our supply chains, and put the interests of Americans ahead of political posturing. Your holiday should be about gratitude and family, not another bailout for bad policy.
