New Jersey’s political landscape is showing signs of shifting, but labeling it a “swing state” remains premature. While the 2024 presidential election saw the closest margin since 1992—with Kamala Harris winning by just 5.1%—key factors suggest this was more about Democratic apathy than a Republican surge. Donald Trump’s vote total (1.9 million) mirrored his 2020 numbers, while Harris underperformed Biden’s 2020 tally by 500,000 votes, highlighting turnout issues rather than a mass defection to the GOP. Democrats also held all nine House seats and a critical Senate race.
Conservative activist Scott Presler, founder of Early Vote Action, is spearheading efforts to flip New Jersey red by replicating his Pennsylvania “voter registration model.” His tactics include:
– : Hunters, veterans, Amish communities, and union workers.
– : Despite Trump’s past skepticism of mail-in ballots, Presler emphasizes legal “ballot harvesting” to boost GOP participation.
– : Focusing on areas like Sussex County, which borders red Pennsylvania counties, to maximize cross-state Republican influence.
– : GOP sign-ups have surged by 12.5% since 2021, narrowing Democrats’ voter-registration advantage.
– : Trump won seven more counties in 2024 than in 2020, including Atlantic County—a Democratic stronghold for decades.
– : Just 65% of registered voters cast ballots in 2024, a record low for a presidential year, driven by dissatisfaction with Harris and economic concerns.
Experts caution against overinterpreting 2024’s results. Rutgers professor Julia Sass Rubin notes that New Jersey’s Democratic leanings on social issues likely made voters feel safe protesting Harris without embracing Trump. The 2025 gubernatorial race will be a clearer test of whether the state is truly trending red.
In short, while Presler’s ground game and GOP registration gains are notable, New Jersey’s status as a swing state hinges on sustained Republican performance in future elections—not a single cycle of Democratic disengagement.
