Israel has intensified efforts to target Iran’s leadership, with recent strikes eliminating key figures in Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s inner circle, including Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami and ballistic missile chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh. While unconfirmed rumors of Khamenei’s death circulated after these attacks, evidence suggests he relocated to an underground bunker in northeastern Tehran. His last public appearance was a televised address on June 13.
The Islamic Republic’s survival likely hinges on its entrenched security apparatus, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, which have suppressed dissent for decades. Though Khamenei’s death would create a power vacuum, the regime’s reliance on military and ideological institutions — not solely individual leadership — reduces the likelihood of immediate collapse. Potential successors would emerge from Khamenei’s cadre of loyalists, but internal fractures could follow given recent losses.
While Israel has openly targeted Iranian leadership, the U.S. role remains indirect. President Trump’s description of Khamenei as an “easy target” signals political support for Israel’s actions but stops short of direct intervention. Retaliation against the U.S. appears unlikely unless Tehran perceives explicit American coordination with Israeli strikes — a scenario not substantiated by current reports.
Khamenei’s potential removal underscores the regime’s fragility amid sustained military pressure. However, the Revolutionary Guards’ control over security and proxy networks across the Middle East provides a durable foundation for continuity, even amid leadership transitions. For the Iranian people, prolonged instability could reignite protests suppressed in 2009 and 2022, though past crackdowns demonstrate the regime’s willingness to use extreme force to retain power.
