Congress faces a critical decision this week on extending Trump-era tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025. If allowed to lapse, , with middle-income families paying $1,695 more annually. President Trump and House Republicans are pushing a $4.5 trillion extension package through budget reconciliation, bypassing Senate filibuster rules.
### Key Provisions at Risk
– :
– Doubled standard deduction ($15K single/$30K joint)
– 20% small business deduction
– Lower individual tax brackets
– Higher estate tax exemption ($11M)
– :
– 1M+ jobs at risk without extension
– $284B manufacturing growth at stake
### Trump’s New Proposals
While extending TCJA is the priority, added measures face hurdles:
– : Benefits service workers but impacts <1% of workforce
- : Would aid high earners ($5M+ households gain $2,500/year) while threatening program solvency
- : Not directly covered in negotiations – current GOP focus remains TCJA renewal rather than new brackets.
### Chances of Approval
:
- House passed budget allowing $4.5T cuts paired with $1.7T spending reductions
- Senate seeks separate bills but faces Trump’s “one big bill” demand
:
- $37T deficit spike by 2054 if cuts aren’t offset
- Byrd Rule blocks deficit expansion beyond 10 years, forcing partial sunsets
Farmers and middle-class families face the steepest hikes if Congress fails to act, while top earners retain 43% of benefits. With Republicans controlling Congress, a scaled-back extension is probable, but new tax eliminations for specific income groups remain unlikely this session.
